Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.465943 1.528709 1.593822 1.666629 1.746034 1.830312 1.926925
2026-01-11 1.387822 1.471172 1.560445 1.663811 1.781028 1.910847 2.066963
2026-01-18 1.334612 1.432240 1.539373 1.666845 1.816013 1.987194 2.201797
2026-01-25 1.272462 1.377649 1.495129 1.637768 1.808725 2.010441 2.271985
2026-02-01 1.231106 1.343457 1.470950 1.628652 1.821952 2.056209 2.370246
2026-02-08 1.194009 1.311718 1.447115 1.617312 1.830096 2.094251 2.459491
2026-02-15 1.160448 1.282218 1.423944 1.604636 1.834571 2.126354 2.541643
2026-02-22 1.138921 1.265780 1.415204 1.608507 1.859077 2.184578 2.662769
2026-03-01 1.102608 1.230002 1.381217 1.578699 1.837827 2.179772 2.693165
2026-03-08 1.073898 1.202416 1.356139 1.558819 1.828079 2.189180 2.743844
2026-03-15 1.050994 1.181122 1.337970 1.546769 1.827683 2.210766 2.813541
2026-03-22 1.043275 1.178179 1.342450 1.563968 1.867148 2.290256 2.979105
2026-03-29 1.037014 1.177260 1.349927 1.586072 1.915485 2.387393 3.186966
2026-04-05 1.020067 1.162270 1.338706 1.582434 1.927115 2.430473 3.309445
2026-04-12 1.006608 1.151235 1.332107 1.584564 1.946752 2.486607 3.460921
2026-04-19 0.982019 1.125306 1.305250 1.557784 1.922858 2.473046 3.484205
2026-04-26 0.966091 1.110099 1.292010 1.549291 1.925308 2.501097 3.588017
2026-05-03 0.950212 1.094542 1.277821 1.538859 1.924184 2.522978 3.682255
2026-05-10 0.934644 1.079011 1.263216 1.527256 1.920603 2.540314 3.769289
2026-05-17 0.925653 1.071792 1.259445 1.530739 1.939928 2.596816 3.944177
2026-05-24 0.905487 1.049504 1.234837 1.503570 1.910643 2.568465 3.934135
2026-05-31 0.889441 1.032357 1.216833 1.485429 1.894757 2.562410 3.972608
2026-06-07 0.876643 1.019257 1.204028 1.474424 1.889586 2.574676 4.053739